渤海海域油污溯源模拟预测研究*
Study on Tracing Model of the Oil Spill Sources in Bohai Sea

曹雅静1,2**,高松1,2,丁一1,2,白涛1,2
CAO Yajing1,2,GAO Song1,2,DING Yi1,2,BAI Tao1,2

(1.国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛 266061;2.山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室,山东青岛 266061)
(1.North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center of State Oceanic Administration,Qingdao,Shandong,266061,China;2.Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Environment and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Qingdao,Shandong,266061,China)

摘要:【目的】发展有效、准确的溢油溯源预测技术,为渤海海域溢油污染防治以及责任认定提供参考。【方法】建立基于“拉格朗日”粒子追踪方法的油粒子数值溯源预测模型,利用集合预报方法,结合渤海海域气象、海洋环境驱动场,针对秦皇岛岸段发现的油污,通过溯源模型进行模拟,预测其可能来源,分析油污可能发生的原因。【结果】受海面风和海流的综合作用,冬季在秦皇岛北部海域的油污,多会在春季漂移至秦皇岛海域。【结论】本研究模拟预测方法针对不同的海域进行预测分析,可给出油污的可能来源,为溢油源的排查和应急处置提供技术支持。
关键词:溢油    溯源模型    可能来源
中图分类号:P736.22     文献标识码:A     文章编号:1002-7378(2016)02-0083-05

Abstract:【Objective】Developing the effective and accurate tracing prediction technology of oil spill is prevented the pollution and provided the reference to responsibility  of oil spill in Bohai Sea.【Methods】This paper studied on the tracing model of oil particle which was fundamental by the theory of “Lagrange” method.This research was used the prediction results from operational meteorological numerical model (Weather reseach and forecast,WRF) and ocean numerical model (Regional ocean model syslem,ROMS)to drive field for the marine environment.The numeric simulation of the oil tracing model was used to predict the probability source of oil spill in Qinhuangdao.We analyzed the reasons of the marine dynamic to explain the oil spill drift.【Results】Due to the effect of surface wind and ocean current,the oil spill in the north sea of Qinhuangdao duirng winter will be drifted to the  offshore of Qinhuangdao in spring of next year.【Conclusion】The simulated forecasting methods are studied to analyze the different area of the sea,which can identify probability source of oil spill.It can provide the support for checking the source of oil spill and emergency response.
Key words:oil spill,tracing mode,probable source

*海洋公益性科研项目(201205012)资助。
 

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发布日期:2016/6/23